Thursday, May 10, 2007

It's Summer 2006. Would you trade...

Jaroslav Spacek, signed at ~$3.0 M, for Daniel Tjarnqvist, signed at $1.5 M?

Shaggy would go on to be the only Oiler defenseman with a plus rating (his injury obviously helped him as he avoided the suckfest that was Edmonton's last 20 games). He would also post ESP/60 and PPP/60 rates of 0.83 and 2.97 respectively. His 2.97 PPP/hr made him the only Oiler D with a rate above 1 in this regard. Kind of pathetic, no?

Spacek would go on to play the 5th most ES minutes for Buffalo and finish with a very attractive +20 in that time. His ESP/60 and PPP/60 are just slightly behind Shaggy's at 0.78 and 2.81 respectively.

Keep in mind that you can't predict injuries. Especially to pubic regions.


Blogger Showerhead said...

PS - this post exists at least slightly because I wanted to prove I can write something readable in less time than it will take for K-Lowe to admit he fucked up the Pronger trade.

5/10/2007 9:59 am  
Blogger Dennis said...

I'd have no problem with bringing back Shaggy, I think he's a top 4 guy for sure and I can't imagine he'll have a lot of bargaining power given he's coming off an injury that killed his last season.

Your other post might have been more appropriate for my next point but I wonder what a Smid-Gilbert third pairing soft min duo would fare? I'd say they'd get eaten on the road but they'd probably be manageable at home given that Smid didn't get killed playing top four min. I think we would be saying much better things about him if he'd player where he should've last year, ie bottom pairing NHL D or big min AHL D.

Of course I'd also just as soon believe that Smid's top four again next year because "he played 'well' there last year and he should be better equipped to handle it next year."

I'm thinking that Shaggy's not even on the radar, and maybe Hejda isn't either. Grebs is gonna make one way money, Smid's the golden boy, there are people in the org who love Greene and Gilbert good down the stretch. Something's gotta give and I can't wait to see how it shakes out. Going forward I think Shaggy can be part of a solution but I think the Oilers are too in love with the kids to consider him.

Regarding Spacek, I find it very interesting that Buff paid that much for a 5 or a 6. Was this a reactionary move because of McKee's departure plus what happened to them in last year's EC Final? Or did they envision him playing a bigger role but once he showed up they decided not to elevate him past say the Tallinders and Numminen's?

5/10/2007 1:48 pm  
Blogger SweatyO said...

Conclusions I make about the Oiler D:

1) One of the four youngsters (Greene, Gilbert, Grebeshkov, Smid) is getting dealt. Most people would say deal Greene or Gilbert, but I'm of the opposite stance: deal Grebeshkov or shop around and see if you can capitalize on the hype and turn Smid plus something into, oh, say Joni Pitkanen

2) One of Hejda/Tjarnqvist will likely be retained to play with Staios on the 2nd pairing.

3) There is a need for a guy to play with Smith on the top pairing. Be it a guy like Pitkanen via trade or a Hannan, Timonen or Markov via the UFA market.

Ideal scenario. Deal Grebeshkov in a package with Lupul and the Islander 1st to the Flyers to land Pitkanen. Then go sign Hannan. Top four of Hannan/Smith/Pitkanen/Staios with Greene/Gilbert/Smid as the bottom three.

5/10/2007 6:16 pm  
Blogger Oil Stain said...

It's a tough choice as neither are the goods, but I think I'd probably rather have Spacek.

Jaro has played a complete season here and there while Daniel's games played have consistently dwindled since his rookie season.

Jaro has also had some strong offensive outings over the years while Tjarnqvist has never cracked 20 points. While Shaggy had a good start with the Oilers his production trended forever downwards if you break his year up into 10 game sections.

Jaro has proven he can handle tougher opposition in Chicago and in Edmonton down the stretch and into the playoffs. We don't really know what would happen with Tjarnqvist when the going gets tougher in the second half.

I tend to think Shaggy would be in healthy scratch territory on a playoff run. The guy was visibly afraid of getting hit and blocking shots.

5/10/2007 9:36 pm  
Blogger JavaGeek said...

Edmonton probably needed Spacek more than they needed Tjarnqvist.

Spacek has more of an offensive upside than Tjarnqvist. Edmonton couldn've really used a couple more decent power play defenseman (2 or 3) and Spacek would've been an upgrade on the power play. That said, Spacek wouldn't be an upgrade on the PP on most teams.

Not sure why he was so bad on the PP in Buffalo though, he's making it up in the playoffs a bit.

Of course the biggest difference is that Tjarnqvist had a good year and Spacek had a bad year.

I haven't seen much of these guys though.

5/10/2007 10:32 pm  
Blogger RiversQ said...

While Shaggy had a good start with the Oilers his production trended forever downwards if you break his year up into 10 game sections.

This isn't really true.

At 5V5, Tjarnqvist was -4 in the first quarter of the season. +5 in the 2nd quarter and +1 in the third quarter.

Personally I'd take Tjarnqvist because he's much cheaper.

Aside: Interesting stuff in Buffalo tonight with implications for the UFA market.

As expected, it was a pretty hard match of Drury on Alfredsson. I had a brief look at the shift charts too and it looks a little like they sent Briere's line out for the shift after Alfredsson's line left the ice at least 7 or 8 times. That's enough to suggest that is the game plan. Probably a good idea by Ruff.

5/10/2007 10:46 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Yeah, phrased that way I think that Tjarnqvist was a helluva a pickup for the money. A shame he couldn't stay healthier.

When it comes to finding veteran defensemen who are surprisingly useful ... Lowe's group bat way above the league average. Hejda and Tjarnqvist are more evidence for that file for sure. Which makes it all the more strange that they seem hell bent on filling the roster with so many very young defensemen.

5/10/2007 11:50 pm  
Blogger Oil Stain said...

Just talking personal scoring numbers Mr.Glass scored 6 points in his first 10, then 4, then 3, then 2 points in his final seven games. So it looked like Tjarnqvist wasn't really likely to keep up his scoring pace if he had played the whole string.

As for even strength.... Lupul started his glorious season on the first line and Jason Smith didn't play his best hockey in the early season and how to seperate that from Tjarnqvist's early results is something I don't have the answer for.

Of course in this scenario I'm assuming that if the Oilers are in a spot where they need to choose between Spatch and Shaggy that their D-core is going to resemble a pile of rubble anyways so money be damned! Take the better one.

If on the other hand the Oilers manage to wrangle a respectable top four defenceman with PP ability that is better then either of them then the choice of taking the cheap guy becomes pretty easy. But even then I'd rather have Hejda over Tjarnqvist. ;)

5/11/2007 12:14 am  
Blogger Showerhead said...

I tend to think Shaggy would be in healthy scratch territory on a playoff run. The guy was visibly afraid of getting hit and blocking shots.
I wonder if this can be attributed to the injury he suffered.

Also regarding your point that Spacek has proven he can play tough opposition, I think last year's playoffs would prove you wrong. IIRC the pairing of Spacek/Staios did not finish with a flattering EV rating. Spacek himself got burned for some ugly goals and began to scare me as the playoffs wore on.

Of course the biggest difference is that Tjarnqvist had a good year and Spacek had a bad year.
I think you've probably got it here, but as Vic and Rivers have suggested the Oilers were probably better served taking Shaggy based on dollars alone. Of course you can't predict good/bad/injured years but I remember making a post here last summer where I basically convinced myself that Tjarnqvist could be expected to be a defensively better, offensively worse Spacek which I thought Edmonton could probably have been better served with. IIRC I made some mistakes with my math but hey, the perception was born ;)

Anyhow, I thought the comparison was at least worth making. I think sweatyo's suggestion for what will happen this off-season is probably very accurate. We shall see!

5/13/2007 11:37 am  

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